Covid in 2022 (New thread)

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TooTallDean
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Covid in 2022 (New thread)

Post by TooTallDean » Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:31 pm

I really hoped I wouldn't need to start this thread...

In 2020, just after the word Covid first started getting mentioned, I started a thread to ask about how it might affect airshows.
We know how that ended...

So now things were getting back to somewhat "normal" and we were looking forward to seeing real air shows again.
Then a new strain appeared out of nowhere.

It is still early days, but how do you think Omicron will affect the 2022 season?
I suspect that military bases will close down again. Especially as it is FAR more transmissible. The USAF doesn't want half their people in quarantine.
For me, it's all about the military aircraft. I just can't get into the civvy stuff.
And already the border between Canada and the US is getting more restrictive. (I am in Canada, so this affects me directly)

Your thoughts?

Dean
Last edited by TooTallDean on Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Adam
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Post by Adam » Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:46 pm

I've been thinking a lot about this too. A huge amount rides on the '22 season for me, career-wise - if some big shows survive, I've got one, but if they fall, then so do I. The general mood in Europe seems to be pretty positive with expectations of a season at least as normal as the second half of 2021. Here in the UK anyone can take free at-home tests as often as they like. I hope that those, along with vaccinations and everything we've learned about living with the virus over the past two years, can mean that sweeping restrictions on summertime outdoor events are a thing of the past.

My greatest worry for next year is ease of travel. I travelled internationally a fair bit over the past two years, by airline, private flight, train, car and ferry, and experienced everything from enforced 11-day hotel isolation to breezing through airports totally unchecked. On the whole during the summer months, while it's been a massive pain trying to understand all the rules, the actual act of travelling has been fairly frictionless and reasonably-priced, at least within Europe. But rules have been changing over the past few weeks. I am planning to come to Canada for Airshow 50, for example, but I read yesterday that Canada is adopting a policy of testing on arrival and self-isolation until a result comes through. That'd mean arriving several days early in case the test comes through slowly, which likely makes the trip more expensive than I can reasonably justify.

Then there's the matter of boosters. Even before Omicron, some European countries stopped considering people vaccinated if they'd gone more than 7 months without a booster and others peg the number at 9 months. Booster #2 rollout has started in at least one country. I worry about how different nations will interpret the need/frequency of future boosters and how this will match the availability. What if the UK says I need an annual booster but France says they last 7 months? Presumably that's 5 months of the year when I can't go to France. And as vaccination dates are determined by the UK vaccination drive, I don't get much say in which 5 months those are. It could be the entire airshow season! Actually my initial vaccine "expires" in France in just a few days, probably before I get boosted, so I'll likely temporarily lose my French vaccination status, not that I was planning on using it this winter. I'm sure all this will settle down in due course, but when we're talking about cycles that last months or years, a coordinated international approach by next summer seems unlikely.

One thing for certain is that here in Britain, Omicron is causing apocalyptically frightening case numbers - the worst we've ever had - and it's coming to the rest of the world too. I guess over the next month or so we'll find out how dangerous it really is, but the last time we had a big Dec/Jan peak, our airshows didn't really return to normal until late July. Teams and organisers may be feeling positive, but I'm less confident.
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Post by n33d4sp33d_85 » Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:19 am

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TooTallDean
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Post by TooTallDean » Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:03 am

Adam,

Thanks for your observations.
You touched on the subject of continuously changing rules, especially for international travel.

That is what is holding me back from planning any travel now.
I don't want to be locked down for two weeks in a Covid hotel and miss 2/3 of a 3 week trip.

I'll be damn glad when this is all over!
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Post by Flightline Uk » Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:57 am

I would not read too much into what is happening right now with Omicron, International travel etc. The winter months were always going to be 'bumpy' and COVID is going no where. We are in a much better place even if things seem quite dark now.

I think the real threats to 2022 Display Season will not be so much related to the pandemic itself, rather than all the 'after effects' it has caused. In the UK and Europe at least, the Event Support industry has been badly hit. There's a lack of companies and staff to support events and the costs have risen dramatically for some. One event has seen service quotes 160% over what they previously paid. There will be a significant squeeze and already we are seeing some scaling back in 2022 plans.

The military (this side of the atlantic) at least seem to be very willing to support airshows. However, as you rightly mention holding events on military property and with military staffing could be problematic. Base commanders may well be wary and add in to that some military bases have seen an entire command cycle come and go without holding an event! There will be a significant lack of experience in some quarters.

That said, I'm still cautiously optimistic 2022 will be better than 2021. We just perhaps should not expect anything like 2019 just yet and be more flexible with plans.
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Post by kalamazookid » Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:57 pm

I'm expecting another disjointed year with cancellations, particularly military shows. I think most civilian shows will be fine unless there are shortages of availability or escalating costs associated with some of the services needed to put on a show. It sounds like this was a major factor in some cancellations last year, and there should be continued concern for the availability of sponsorships at smaller shows if local economies have been negatively effected.

Personally, I'm not booking anything that I can't cancel easily. Mandated quarantine or isolation would nix my hopes of attending Airshow50 as I am not likely to have more vacation time to spend on airshows. I'm fully vaccinated and don't have any concern about events requiring the vaccine for attendance, though I'm not sure that's on the table anywhere anyway. Like last year, I won't be buying advance tickets for anything until the last possible minute. I tend to over-plan with setting aside time for airshows anyway, so if I lose shows to weather or cancellations it still should be a good year - even if there are some disappointments.

I personally think the best plan is to have plans that are adaptable. Whatever next summer looks like, I'll make the most of it with the time I have available to do so.
Last edited by kalamazookid on Thu Dec 23, 2021 1:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by Adam » Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:01 pm

Flightline Uk wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 11:57 am I would not read too much into what is happening right now with Omicron, International travel etc. The winter months were always going to be 'bumpy' and COVID is going no where. We are in a much better place even if things seem quite dark now.
I agree the winter was always going to be bad and things will almost certainly get better by the summer. But for those of us planning (or relying on) more ambitious international trips, the time to get things signed off and booked up is now, not in spring 2022 when Omicron eases off. Refundable iteneraries are prohibitively expensive and I don't think anybody in their right mind would want to book less flexible but budget-friendly trips at this stage, but sitting here waiting for enough clarity to hit the "pay now" button, while prices slowly rise and availability slowly falls, is already damaging. There are a couple of overseas shows I expect to rely on fairly heavily this year, but, quiet reasonably, they aren't willing to have a meaningful discussion with someone from abroad at this stage. Every conversation consists of qualifiers like "if we can" or "depending on what things cost in the spring", meanwhile I can't make any other plans for those dates just in case. Deeply uncomfortable for me, with so much riding on the '22 season, but also for anybody else who wants to go abroad next summer without breaking the bank, like the group of US forum members planning on Zeltweg - where I hope to join them.
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Post by TooTallDean » Fri Dec 31, 2021 12:59 pm

I'm getting a bad feeling about 2022 already.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rticipants

Major companies are pulling out of the Consumer Electronics Show as Covid numbers explode
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Post by n33d4sp33d_85 » Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:31 pm

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TooTallDean
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Post by TooTallDean » Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:49 pm

And just like that...
The cancelations begin.
http://yumaairshow.com/index.cfm/securi ... /covid-19/
MCAS Yuma was on my list of possible shows.
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